Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Futures Day Trading - Patterns in The S&P 500 and E-mini Futures Contracts- PART 1

Identifying patterns that repeat in the futures market, then jumping on them, is what it's all about. These patterns can be rather complex, requiring an accumulated library of observations. The best way to do it is through your own intuition. There's no better computer trading program than your own trained mind.

When do we start talking about the S&P 500 futures contract patterns that repeat over and over throughout the day? Right now! Theres so many. Just to give you an example of what Im talking about, from June to December 2005, I filled up about 55 typewritten pages with 240 different examples describing the general futures patterns I saw. And Im still adding to them. I then read them into a tape recorder and often listen to the tapes to reinforce these observations.

Its so easy to forget what weve seen. Going through a futures bull market" lasting 5 days can easily erase ideas we learned about the last mini-bear market the week before. The idea is to sit in front of the screen and watch the market unfold. You need to be constantly scanning the various charts, one-minute, five minute, sixty minute and daily bars to look for these patterns and set ups. Your mouse should always be moving and clicking. Take visual snapshots every five minutes. Scan your instruments and environment, just as a pilot does in an airplane .

These futures price patterns can sometimes each take two paragraphs to describe. They can involve COMBINATIONS of price formations, volatility, dullness, spikes, erosion, persistent strength, tick patterns, premium patterns, relationships to other markets, wave structure, volume, time counts and other subtle combinations. They all add up to that magic signal inside your head that the market is about to make a worthwhile turn. One or two indications dont mean much. In addition, they must be in context to the futures market position. Dont get caught swinging from one or two tree branches.

For example, let's say the market goes dull and quiet. This can be very bullish at a bottom. Or it can be very bearish at a top. Or it can mean nothing if the market is in a middle range like when the traders go to lunch between 12-1PM east coast time. Proper context is the key when interpreting these signals into meaningful pattern combinations.

These signals are decoded using "fuzzy logic" - your brain. Digital software can't compete! There's no way to program these complex patterns with a computer or neural net. Ive tried it and have come up with some effective systems, but I've always done better using the human mind for integration.

Part Two of Three Parts - Next!

There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.

Thomas Cathey directs the managed futures division of Thomas Capital Management, LLC. Get FREE, his complete 44+ lesson, "Thomas Commodity Trading Course" and weekly TimeLine newletter by visiting: http://www.thomascapitalmanagement.com/commodity/welcome.htm The course is brand new and fun reading... a "street-wise" trading e-course. Visit the main Thomas Capital Management trading website at: http://www.ThomasCapitalManagement.com