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WELCOME & CONTENTS
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Hello, and welcome to your fortnightly newsletter from the
offices of TrainerTrackStats.
In this issue:
- Review since last newsletter
- System angle: Quick Return Chasers
- The joke...
- Tomorrow's qualifiers
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REVIEW SINCE LAST NEWSLETTER
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In the last newsletter, I showed you a way to profit from the changes in going that can happen at this time of year. Well, without so much as a crystal ball, that proved to be very prescient, as the rains came recently and changed many tracks from Good to Firm, to Soft. With a plethora of non-runners, there were also many horses running on the 'wrong' ground for them, and a few shock results as a consequence.
Its also been a disappointing run for TTS followers. In the last newsletter's "Tomorrow's Qualifiers" section I tipped two winners, at 5/1 and 4/6, along with a 2nd at 12/1, from four selections. But since then, its been a war of attrition with rays of TTS sunshine few and far between.
Sunday 15th October summed it up, when Red Scally, a qualifier until his price moved from 14/1 to 16/1 two minutes before the off, outstayed the opposition to triumph. Some solace for me when some of my subscribers told me they'd backed it, but in truth, the strict interpretation of TTS dictates that I cannot record it as a win for TTS.
Looking ahead, its definitely a case of 'onwards and upwards' for TTS, with many of the big stables now gearing up for the season proper after a sleepy start. 11th November sees the Murphys Gold Cup meeting at Cheltenham and, from then on, its action all the way to the end of April. For TTS fans, its action from right now, as there is jump racing in the UK pretty much every day from here.
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SYSTEM ANGLE: QUICK RETURN CHASERS
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An angle that you should always be aware of when betting, is the significance of a horse making a quick comeback. I have for some time paid close attention to horses running within 3 days of a previous effort on the All Weather, and I wondered if the same principle held true for jumpers.
As ever, I put this to the test with my trusty Racing Systems Builder software (the same hugely impressive database I trawl to locate the TrainerTrackStats nuggets). After playing around with a few variables, I ended up with the following criteria:
Handicaps (Chase and Hurdles)
3-8 years old
Ran 1, 2 or 3 days ago
7/2 or less
YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%
2001 6 17 35.29 0.99 5.82 -5.84
2002 5 15 33.33 -0.77 -5.13 10.81
2003 11 27 40.74 5.25 19.44 21.78
2004 16 34 47.06 14.06 41.35 39.25
2005 12 23 52.17 15.13 65.78 61.71
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50 116 43.10 34.66 29.88 28.05
As you can see, though there aren't too many qualifiers, they win pretty much every other start, and are well worth following.
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THE JOKE.......
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Nothing to do with horse racing or winner finding but quite funny nonetheless!
(With apologies to all nerds - myself included - in advance!)
A truck driver is hauling a trailer load of computers, and stops for a beer. As he approaches the bar he sees a big sign on the door saying "Nerds Not Allowed - Enter At Your Own Risk!" He goes in and sits down. The bartender comes over to him, sniffs, says, "You smell kind of nerdy. What do you do for a living?" The truck driver says, "I drive a truck, and the smell is just from the computers I am hauling."
The bartender says, "Okay, truck drivers are not nerds." and serves him a beer. As he is sipping his beer, a skinny guy walks in with tape around his glasses, a pocket protector with twelve kinds of pens and pencils, and a belt at least a foot too long. The bartender, without saying a word, pulls out a shotgun and blows the guy away.
The truck driver said, totally shocked, "Why did you do that?" The bartender said, "Not to worry, the nerds are overpopulating Silicon Valley and are in season now. You don't even need a license." The truck driver finishes his beer, gets back in his truck, and heads back onto the freeway. Suddenly he veers to avoid an accident, and the load shifts. The back door breaks open and computers spill out all over the freeway. He jumps out and sees a crowd already forming, grabbing up the computers. They are all engineers, accountants and programmers wearing the nerdiest clothes he has ever seen.
He can't let them steal his whole load. So, remembering what happened in the bar, he pulls out his gun and starts blasting away, felling several of them instantly. A highway patrol officer comes zooming up and jumps out of the car screaming at him to stop. The truck driver said, "What's wrong? I thought nerds were in season." "Well, sure," said the patrolman. "But you can't bait 'em."
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TOMORROW'S QUALIFIERS
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The TTS runners for Thursday, 19th October are:
Haydock
2.40 Flake
3.40 In Extra Time (PRICE WARNING)
4.40 Rival Bidder
Sea Wall (DOUBTFUL RUNNER)
Ludlow
2.50 Cannon Fire
Note the (PRICE WARNING). These horse - like all qualifiers -
must be 14/1 or shorter to be a qualifier.
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REMINDER / NEXT LETTER...
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Well, that's about all for this letter. I hope you've enjoyed it. Before I close, I'd like to take the opportunity to remind those of you who have yet to subscribe that I now have a daily email subscription service for TrainerTrackStats, giving you all the following day's selections the night before. Better still, you can take a FREE trial for a week before having to invest a penny of your 'hard earned'.
For more information, go to www.trainerflatstats.com/subscribe
Next newsletter will be in your inbox on or around 31st October.
Finally, if you have any comments / feedback on this letter, or anything you'd like to see in future,
please email your suggestions to enquiries@trainerflatstats.com
I'll look forward to hearing from you!
As ever, thanks for reading, and best regards
Matt Bisogno
Author, TrainerTrackStats NH 2006/7
http://www.www.trainerflatstats.com
Matt Bisogno is a lifelong horseracing and betting enthusiast, and has published a number of statistical analyses of trainer patterns for horse racing betting purposes.